4th February 2026
5th best ever January sees average account balances exceed $335,000
Key points are as follows:
- The MPF system has started January positively with MPF Ratings’ MPF All Fund Performance Index up 3.42% for the month, a result which ranks 5th best since MPF’s inception.
- In absolute dollar terms, the investment gain for January is approximately $53.2bn (or $11,091 per MPF’s 4.79m members).
- History suggests MPF members can be cautiously optimistic in 2026. Out of 14 previous times MPF has produced a positive January result, 9 resulted in a positive full year return at an average return of approximately 12.42%.
- HKD bonds was the only asset class to register a January loss, with Asian,and Hong Kong and China equities leading the way with their 2nd and 6th respective best returns since MPF’s inception. (See table 1)
- After factoring in contributions, total MPF assets are expected to end January above the $1.60tr mark for the first time since the system’s inception with total assets to hit $1.610tr (up $56.2bn from end of December), MPF’s highest level for a 9th consecutive month, and equivalent to an all-time record average MPF account balance of $335,834 (up $11,717 from end of December) per MPF’s 4.79m members.
Francis Chung (叢川普), Chairman of MPF Ratings Ltd, Hong Kong’s independent provider of MPF research, views and education today revealed that he believes volatility, rather than returns, could be this year’s key investment theme. This caution is despite MPF carrying its strong 2025 result into 2026 with the system generating a 3.42% January return (as measured by MPF Ratings’ MPFR All Fund Performance Index), MPF’s 5th best January since the system’s inception. Despite Mr Chung’s concerns over volatility, history appears to favour MPF’s 4.79m members, with the system having recorded a positive annual return in 9 years out of 14 when the system has recorded a positive January start.
Quotes:
$1.60tr record size and why could 2026 be a strong year for MPF returns?
“MPF has now broken the $1.60tr barrier and if history is anything to go by then MPF members can be optimistic that 2026 will be a strong year. Out of the 14 previous occasions MPF started the year positively, 9 have resulted in positive full year returns but 2026 may not be like past years.”
What is the key to achieving a positive return in 2026?
“Hong Kong and China equities have started 2026 strongly, and historically when local markets do well, MPF does well. We are optimistic for the local markets in 2026 however it’s likely that MPF members will be challenged by volatility reinforcing the importance of diversification.”
“Expect a volatile year but the risk of not being invested is greater than remaining invested”
“We expect 2026 to be positive but volatile. A confluence of unpredictable political and geo-political situations are weighing on financial markets but the risk of not being invested is, in our opinion, higher than staying invested. Diversification together with long term investing minimizes uncertainty and the MPFA’s mandated DIS funds continue to be MPF Ratings’ preferred investment option for MPF’s 4.79m members.”
Table 1: MPF Ratings’ MPFR Index returns by asset class (as of 31st January 2026)
Source: MPF Ratings
Table 2: 10 best performing MPF constituent funds for the month of January 2026
Source: MPF Ratings
