“Two out of three ain’t bad”

26th March 2024

MPF Ratings’ All Fund Performance Index heads towards positive month

Key points are as follows:

  • The MPF system is expected to produce its 2nd positive monthly return out of 3 in March.
  • March 2024’s current investment gain is approximately 1.87% (as measured by the MPFR All Fund Performance Index as at 21st of March). (See Table 1)
  • In absolute dollar terms, a 1.87% gain would be equivalent to approximately $14.6bn gain (or $3,100 gain per MPF’s 4.75m members).
  • Equities continues to be the main driver of MPF returns. (Also see Table 1)
  • Japanese equities is the best performing MPF asset class on a 1-month and rolling 12-month basis while US equities, which has attracted MPF’s largest net inflow share in 2023, continues to deliver strong results. (Also see Table 1)
  • After factoring in contributions, total MPF assets are presently forecasted to end March at approximately $1.18tr (up $18.6bn from end of February), equivalent to an average MPF account balance of $248,100 (up $3,900 from end of February).

Francis Chung (叢川普), Chairman of MPF Ratings Ltd, Hong Kong’s independent provider of MPF research, views and education today pointed to strong equity performance in March putting MPF on track to deliver a 2nd month of positive performance in the first three months of 2024.

Mr Chung has foreshadowed a positive March investment result of approximately 1.87% for March, the equivalent of approximately $14.6bn and representing a gain of about $3,100 per MPF’s 4.75m members. After factoring in contributions this would take MPF total assets to $1.18tr, equivalent to an average account balance of $248,100.


Equity returns drive March MPF returns

“While risks are still present, data continues to suggest that inflation globally is stabilizing, giving hope to reduced interest rates. Such expectations are currently driving positive returns in financial markets.”

“Two out of three ain’t bad”

“January saw a negative monthly return, February was positive and March is on track to be positive too. Two winning months out of three isn’t bad. 2024 has started well and MPF members should be pleased.”

Outlook for 2024

“The narrative of lower inflation and interest rates is positive for fixed income and attractively valued quality equities, but with most MPF investors allocated to Hong Kong and China equities, local market performance will still be key to MPF’s overall 2024 performance and volatility continues to be MPF’s biggest ‘X’ factor. For this reason, while it’s tempting to chase strong returns seen in markets such as Japan and the US, diversified investing and the use of DIS funds continues to be our preferred 2024 investment approach.”

Table 1: MPF Ratings’ MPFR Index returns by asset class (as at 21st March 2024)

Source: MPF Ratings

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