26th August 2026
System on track for a positive month out as RMB bonds outshine Treasuries
Key points are as follows:
- As markets approach August’s final trading week, MPF is currently showing an investment gain of approximately 1.85% (as measured by the MPFR All Fund Performance Index as at 21st of August), a result which sees MPF tracking a year-to-date return of 8.21%. (See table 1)
- If MPF ends the month positively it will be the 7th time the system has recorded 6 positive months out of a possible 8, and only on one occasion, has the system end the year with a loss (in 2021).
- Driven by August’s expected gain, the MPF system is projected to record a monthly investment gain of $31.1bn to bring year-to-date investment gains to $128.7bn, equivalent to a respective average monthly and year-to-date gain of $6,258 and $26,561 per MPF’s 4.97 million scheme members.
- At the asset class level, Asian equities continue to lead year-to-date returns on the back of strong, but highly volatile, returns from the tech dominant Korean and Taiwan markets, while RMB bonds are recording their highest year-to-date returns since MPF’s inception. (See table 1)
- After factoring in contributions and investment results, total MPF assets are set to end August at approximately $1.713tr (up $34.1n from end of July and up $159bn year-to-date), equivalent to an average MPF account balance of $344,760 per MPF’s 4.97m members.
As markets approach the final trading week of August, Francis Chung (叢川普), Chairman of MPF Ratings Ltd, Hong Kong’s independent provider of MPF research, views and education today said that he expects a monthly gain of 1.85% for August. This represents a monthly investment gain of $31.1bn, or $6,258 across MPF’s 4.97 million members. Year-to-date per member gains are at a healthy $26,561, while average member account balances are expected to end August at $344,760. After factoring in contributions, total MPF assets are forecasted to end August at approximately $1.713tr.
Quotes：
From TACOs to Flip Flops, the only certainty Trump is creating remains uncertainty
“From TACO trades to flip flopping over Middle East, tariffs and economic policies, Trump is creating a level of uncertainty that financial markets don’t usually like, highlighting the importance of remaining invested, and crucially, well diversified.”
RMB bond funds are having their best year ever; Treasuries are not.
“As US yields reach multi-decade highs bonds on the Mainland have rallied, in part because its dealing with deflation issues while the rest of the world grapples with inflation, highlighting how China can behave differently and therefore afford diversification benefits for MPF members.”
Possible 6th positive month out of 8 and a year-to-date return of 8.21%.
“History suggests MPF members should be positive. Historically MPF has achieved a positive return in 6 of the first 8 calendar months on 6 previous occasions, and only once did the system end the year with a loss. However, this year there are large dispersions between asset class returns, ranging from 26% for Asian equities to losses in Bond funds. Such dispersion highlights the critical role diversification plays in helping MPF members achieve their retirement objectives.”
Table 1: MPF Ratings’ MPFR Index returns by asset class (as at 21st August 2026)
Source: MPF Ratings
