26th May 2026
4 out of 5positive investment return months to start a year rarely happens but history tells us the year end result is even more surprising
Key points are as follows:
- As MPF enters May’s final trading week, the system is currently showing an investment gain of approximately 1.11% (as measured by the MPFR All Fund Performance Index as at 20th of May). Should MPF end May positively, it would be its 4th positive month in 2026. (See table 1)
- Historically, MPF has recorded 4 positive months in the first 5 calendar months only 5 times, the last being in 2021, however only twice did it result in a positive annual result.
- In absolute dollar terms, MPF’s investment gain as at 20th May is approximately $18.2bn (or $3,799) per MPF’s 4.79m members).
- Japanese, and Asian equities are leading both MPF’s May and year-to-date results, with the broader Asian equity segment benefitting from ongoing interest in the Taiwan and Korean technology sector. (See table 1)
- After factoring in contributions and on current investment results, total MPF assets are forecasted to end May at another all-time record level of approximately $1.656tr (up $21.2bn from end of April), and equivalent to an average MPF account balance of $345,446 (up $4,424 from end of April) per MPF’s 4.79m members.
As markets head into May’s final trading week, Francis Chung (叢川普), Chairman of MPF Ratings Ltd, Hong Kong’s independent provider of MPF research, views and education today said MPF is on track to add another $18bn of monthly investment gains to set a new MPF total asset record size of approximately $1.656tr. According to Mr. Chung, the MPF system is benefiting from strong interest in Asia-Pacific equities, in particular Japan, and Taiwan and Korean where the technology sector is a significant portion of the market. Japanese and Asian equities rank 1st and 2nd on both a year-to-date and monthly performance basis.
Quotes
4th positive month out of 5
“MPF is on track to end May on a positive note. Should this occur, it would mean MPF will have recorded positive returns in 4 of the first 5 months of 2026 with the only loss occurring in March, a month which saw the system record a loss of $102bn, MPF’s biggest monthly loss ever.”
Key risk to growing MPF account balances – complacency
“Producing an investment gain in 4 out of the first 5 calendar months appears great but history tells us another story. In the 5 previous times such a trend has occurred, a positive annual return was only recorded twice. Members must not be complacent especially in today’s uncertain economic and geopolitical climate.”
MPF results contradict growing market risks
“Inflation and bond yields are up while oil prices remain at near record highs. History suggests these are potential warning signals. These risks are not in the control of individual MPF members however members can manage the risks by focusing on diversification and long-term investing, and by taking advantage of the MPFA mandated low Default Investment Strategy (DIS) funds. They remain an excellent option for MPF members to consider.”
Table 1: MPF Ratings’ MPFR Index returns by asset class (as of 20th May 2026)
Source: MPF Ratings
