25th June 2025
MPF flirts with losses throughout June but set to close first half of 2025 strongly
Key points are as follows:
- An estimated June monthly gain of 0.80% (as measured by the MPFR All Fund Performance Index) puts the MPF system on track for a Q2 result of 3.81% and a year-to-date gain of 6.60%, its best first half year performance since 2019 and 5th best since MPF’s launch. (See Table 1)
- If results remain unchanged, in absolute dollar terms, June will see a month-to-date investment gain of approximately $11.1bn (or $2,300 per MPF’s 4.79m members), Q2 2025 gain of $51.1bn (or $10,700 per member), and a year-to-date investment gain of $85.9bn (or $17,900 per member).
- Results in June and Q2 are currently being led by Asian equities’ estimated 2.72% month-to-date and 8.60% quarter-to-date gains respectively, while Hong Kong and China equities with a return of 15.68% is expected to be the best performing over the first half of 2025, its best first 6-month result since 2017 and its 3rd best since MPF’s launch. (Also see Table 1)
- MPF expected investment return laggards for June, Q2 and the first half of 2025 are Japan equities and Other equities respectively. (Also see Table 1)
- Total MPF assets inclusive of contributions could end June at approximately $1.4tr (up $14.3bn from May, up $62.0bn for Q2 and up $108.3bn for year-to-date), a record high since MPF’s launch, and equivalent to an average MPF account balance of $291,900 (up $3,000 from May, up $12,900 in Q2, and up $22,600 for year-to-date).
Francis Chung (叢川普), Chairman of MPF Ratings Ltd, Hong Kong’s independent provider of MPF research, views and education today highlighted the impact of geo-political tensions and external factors on MPF returns as he shared his company’s estimated investment returns for the month of June.
Based on MPF Ratings’ MPFR All Fund Performance Index, the MPF system is forecasted to produce a June investment gain of approximately 0.80%, an absolute dollar estimated equivalent of $11.1bn, or $2,300 for MPF’s 4.79m members. Inclusive of contributions, MPF could end June at approximately $1.4tr, the highest level ever recorded, and equivalent to an average MPF account balance of $291,900.
Quotes:
Geo-Policial tensions dominate markets…
“Middle East tensions have dominated recent news and added to financial market volatility. Last month it was Moody’s decision to downgrade the US sovereign credit rating, and previously it was tariff uncertainties. Through all of this, Hong Kong’s MPF system continues to defy critics by remaining resilient and on track for record total asset sizes.”
Hong Kong and China equities leading MPF to an all-time high
“After factoring in contributions, MPF’s total size are estimated to be $1.4tr by the end of June, an all-time high that’s equivalent to an average account balance of $291,900 for MPF’s 4.79m members. This success is being underpinned by Hong Kong and China equity’s strong 2025 performance which is expected to be up 15.68% for the first half of 2025.”
Tariffs, downgrades and the Middle East, what is the key lesson for MPF members?
“With tariffs, credit downgrades and Middle East tensions, year-to-date MPF returns have every reason to be down, yet the system continues to show surprising resilience that has taken it to an all-time asset size of $1.4tr. The key lesson for MPF members is that while external factors may affect market, these are factors individuals have no control over. MPF members should not panic, rather they should remain invested, be well diversified, and focused on their long-term retirement objectives.”
Table 1: MPF Ratings’ MPFR Index returns by asset class (as at 20th June 2025)
Source: MPF Ratings
