24th September 2026
September quarter expected to highlight hurdles as MPF chases record not seen since 2007
Key points are as follows:
- With markets heading into September’s final trading week, MPF is currently showing a modest investment loss of approximately -0.22% (as measured by the MPFR All Fund Performance Index as at 21st of September). Despite the potential loss, the system is on track for a solid 1.77% Q3 and 7.55% year-to-date return. (See table 1)
- History suggests the system will end the year positively. A September loss would be MPF’s 3rd loss this year but still places the system on track for a 4th consecutive positive annual result, a phenomenon which has only occurred once before (2003-2007)
- Despite MPF’s expected monthly investment loss of -$3.8bn (or -$768 per MPF’s 4.97m members), the system is still expected to produce a total Q3 and year-to-date investment gains of $29.6bn and $118.3bn (or $5,959 and $24,453 per MPF’s 4.97m members) respectively.
- At the asset class level, despite increased interest rates and ongoing inflation concerns, US equities are currently MPF’s best performer in September while Asian equities, on the back of strong, but highly volatile returns from the tech-dominant Korean and Taiwan markets, continues to lead year-to-date returns. (See table 1)
- After factoring in contributions and investment results, total MPF assets are set to drop from an all-time high $1.706tr reached in August to end September at approximately $1.705tr (down $0.8bn from end of August but still up $151bn year-to-date), equivalent to an average MPF account balance of $343,242 per MPF’s 4.97m members.
As markets approach the final trading week of September, Francis Chung (叢川普), Chairman of MPF Ratings Ltd, Hong Kong’s independent provider of MPF research, views and education today said that he expects a modest monthly loss of 0.22% for September. This represents a monthly investment loss of -$3.8bn, or -$768 across MPF’s 4.97 million members. Despite a modest expected loss, year-to-date per member, gains remain at a healthy $24,453 while average member account balances are expected to end September at $343,242. After factoring in contributions, total MPF assets are forecasted to end September at approximately $1.705tr.
Quotes：
Despite a potential modest September loss, MPF is on track to deliver (an almost unprecedented) 4 consecutive years of positive performance
“Despite a modest expected September loss the MPF system continues to deliver solid results in 2026. MPF’s year-to-date return is currently around 7.55%, a result which puts MPF on track for a 4th consecutive year of positive returns, a fantastic result for members which has only happened once previously, between 2003 and 2007.”
US equities surprisingly outperform in September, but Asian equities continue to headline returns
“Despite an increase in US interest rates and ongoing inflation concerns, US equities are the best performing MPF asset class so far in September, however on a year-to-date basis, MPF’s solid returns have been built on outstanding Asian equity gains, and the technology focused Korean and Taiwan markets.”
A warning against complacency in extraordinary times as MPF is poised to break record
“The MPF system is on track to deliver 4 consecutive years of positive returns. This has only happened once before, and that was almost 20 years ago. If achieved it would be an extraordinary result, but we also live in an extraordinary time too, so MPF Ratings reminds members to guard against complacency. Financial markets continue to navigate interest rates, tariffs, and inflation hurdles while geo-political issues remain front-page news. For these reasons we reinforce the importance of diversification and the critical role the MPFA mandated low-fee Default Investment Strategy (DIS) funds play in helping MPF members achieve their saving, investing and retirement goals.”
Table 1: MPF Ratings’ MPFR Index returns by asset class (as at 21st September 2026)
Source: MPF Ratings
