26th March 2026
Middle East tensions wreak MPF havoc as system expects $100bn March loss
Key points are as follows:
- As we enter the final week of March, MPF is currently showing an investment loss of approximately -6.33% (as measured by the MPFR All Fund Performance Index as at 23rd March); on track to be the worst performance month since September 2022, and 7th worst on record. (See table 1)
- In absolute dollar terms, MPF’s investment loss as at 23rd March is approximately -$103.3bn (or $21,542.7 per MPF’s 4.79m members).
- Equities funds are all recording losses in March with Japanese equities on track to record its worst month since October 2008 while Hong Kong and China Equities is on track for its worst month since October 2022.
- After factoring in contributions and based on current investment results, total MPF assets are forecasted to end March at approximately $1.531tr (down -$100.3bn from end of February), and equivalent to an average MPF account balance of $319,345 (down -$20,917 from end of February) per MPF’s 4.79m members.
As markets head into the final trading week of March, Francis Chung (叢川普), Chairman of MPF Ratings Ltd, Hong Kong’s independent provider of MPF research, views and education today said MPF is on track to give up around -$103bn for the month, MPF’s largest monthly investment loss, but also an unsurprising one given the military intervention in Iran by the US and Israelis, an intervention that has seen energy prices, market volatility, and inflation and recessionary concerns jump significantly. The combination of which, according to Mr. Chung, reinforces the importance of diversification and long-term investing.
Quotes:
Military intervention is disrupting markets, the result is an expected $100bn+ loss for MPF in March
“Military intervention has disrupted markets leaving MPF members to face a possible $100bn loss in March which would be the system’s largest monthly decline. Despite this, MPF’s long term results remain solid, with 5 year and 10 year annualised MPF return of approximately 1.28% and 4.01% respectively.”
Equities giving up gains in March
“Unsurprisingly, with heightened concerns over sustained increases in energy prices affecting inflation and economic growth, investors have taken risk off the table. The result is losses across all equity markets, with Japan on track for its worst month since October 2008 and local markets staring at its worst monthly loss since October 2022.”
A key lesson for MPF members – Keep Calm and Diversify
“Remain calm and diversify is MPF Ratings’ message to MPF members. What is happening in the Middle East is out of our hands, but what is in our hands is to remain focused on long term diversified investing to generated consistent returns. The risk of trying to time markets is far greater than remaining invested. Diversification is key to consistency and the MPFA’s mandated DIS funds continue to be MPF Ratings’ preferred investment option for MPF’s 4.79m members.”
Table 1: MPF Ratings’ MPFR Index returns by asset class (as of 23rd March 2026)
Source: MPF Ratings
