4th March 2026
Not seen since 2007, US and local equities simultaneously record losses while rest of MPF rises
MPF Ratings’ February MPF Performance Survey has now been uploaded.
Key points are as follows:
- According to MPF Ratings’ MPF All Fund Performance Index, the MPF system recorded a positive 1.11% return for the month of February, a result which, together with a January’s strong result sees the MPF system record its 3rd best start since MPF’s inception.
- In absolute dollar terms, February’s investment gain is approximately $17.9bn (or $3,729) per MPF’s 4.79m members).
- History suggests MPF members can be optimistic in 2026 but MPF Ratings foresees exceptional risks. The 10 previous times MPF has produced a positive January and February resulted in 7 positive full year returns averaging approximately 14.36%, but a number of factors could derail this trend in 2026.
- While the MPF February return was positive overall US equities and Hong Kong and China equities were the only asset classes to record a loss (See table 1), a phenomenon that has only occurred on 4 previous occasions, the last being February 2007.
- After factoring in contributions, total MPF assets reached a record $1.630tr (up $20.9bn from end of January), MPF’s highest level for a record 10th consecutive month, and equivalent to an all-time record average MPF account balance of $340,216 (up $4,355 from end of January) per MPF’s 4.79m members.
Despite MPF producing a record 10th consecutive month of asset growth in February, Francis Chung (叢川普), Chairman of MPF Ratings Ltd, Hong Kong’s independent provider of MPF research, views and education today reiterated his previously held view that volatility, rather than returns, could be this year’s key investment theme. This caution is despite the system generating a 1.11% February return (as measured by MPF Ratings’ MPFR All Fund Performance Index), and a 3rd best two-month start to a calendar year since MPF’s inception.
Quotes:
Record 10th consecutive month of asset growth underpins MPF’s $1.63tr record size
“A record 10th consecutive month of asset growth takes MPF’s asset size to $1.63tr. The historical probability of MPF having a strong year is high when momentum is strong but with so many outside factors to consider, 2026 may not be like previous years.”
In February US and Hong Kong and China equities were MPF’s only loss-making asset classes in a positive month for MPF first time since 2007
“US equities is one of MPF’s most popular asset classes while Hong Kong and China equities is MPF’s largest asset class, consequently, they’re good barometers for MPF performance, however for the first time since February 2007 both asset classes were the only ones to record losses while the overall MPF result was positive. This unusual occurrence suggests cautious and reinforces the importance of diversification.”
“Volatile year prediction is coming true but the risk of not being invested is greater than remaining invested”
“At end of 2025 MPF Ratings said it expected 2026 to be volatile. The reality is world is presently highly unpredictable, and such is the unpredictability the risk of not being invested is, in our opinion, higher than remaining invested. Diversification and long term investing minimizes uncertainty and the MPFA’s mandated DIS funds continue to be MPF Ratings’ preferred investment option for MPF’s 4.79m members.”
Table 1: MPF Ratings’ MPFR Index returns by asset class (as of 28th February 2026)
Source: MPF Ratings
Table 2: 10 best performing MPF constituent funds for the month of February 2026
Source: MPF Ratings
Table 3: 10 best performing MPF constituent funds year-to-date
Source: MPF Ratings
