25th February 2026
Volatility remains high as MPF aims to cross the finish line with a 10th consecutive month of asset gain
Key points are as follows:
- With a week to go before month’s end, MPF’s February investment gain is approximately 0.28% (as measured by the MPFR All Fund Performance Index as at 20th February), but a positive final month result is not assured. (See table 1)
- In absolute dollar terms, MPF’s investment gain as at 20th February is approximately $4.5bn (or $941.1 per MPF’s 4.79m members).
- While a positive end of month is not certain, should February end positively then history suggests MPF members can be cautiously optimistic in 2026. Out of the 10 previous occasions MPF produced a positive January and February result, 7 resulted in a positive full year return at an average return of approximately 14.36%.
- Notably, MPF’s February performance has been largely characterized by lagging performance from MPF’s two largest equity categories, US equities, and Hong Kong and China Equities, with both expected to see negative returns for the month. (See table 1)
- After factoring in contributions and based on current investment results, total MPF assets are presently forecasted to end February at approximately $1.618tr (up $7.5bn from end of February), MPF’s highest level for a 10th consecutive month, and equivalent to an average MPF account balance of $337,428 (up $1,567 from end of January) per MPF’s 4.79m members.
Francis Chung (叢川普), Chairman of MPF Ratings Ltd, Hong Kong’s independent provider of MPF research, views and education today said MPF has started the Year of the Horse in a volatile manner, and as a result, while MPF had seen positive returns leading into February’s final week, a final positive result cannot be certain as the month end result will be largely dependent on ongoing concerns over tariffs, AI impact to exposed industries, and possible US military intervention in Iran. The combination of which, according to Mr Chung, reinforces the importance of diversification and long-term investing.
Quotes:
Year of the Horse has started in a volatile manner
“MPF had seen a positive return leading into the final week of February, but a final positive result cannot be certain as the month end result will be largely dependent on concerns over tariffs, the impact of AI to exposed industries, and US intentions in the Middle East.”
MPF’s two largest equity categories are MPF’s February performance headwinds
“Notably, MPF’s February performance has been characterized by lagging performance from MPF’s two largest equity categories, US equities, and Hong Kong and China equities, with both expected to see negative returns for the month.”
Despite the volatility the risk of not being invested is greater than remaining invested
“In our opinion, February’s volatility is a sample of what to expect in 2026. Markets will need to navigate through unexpected news. In such an environment, volatility will be potentially higher for longer, but we remain positive 2026 will be positive and the risk of not being invested is higher than remaining invested. Diversification is key and will minimize some of the uncertainty and the MPFA’s mandated DIS funds continue to be MPF Ratings’ preferred investment option for MPF’s 4.79m members.”
Table 1: MPF Ratings’ MPFR Index returns by asset class (as of 20th February 2026)
Source: MPF Ratings
