27th January 2026
MPF set to continue record run in January as volatility warning is issued
Key points are as follows:
- The MPF system is expected to start 2026 where it left 2025, in record territory. With a week to go before month’s end, MPF Ratings is estimating January’s MPF investment gain will be approximately 2.36% (as measured by the MPFR All Fund Performance Index as at 22nd of January). (See table 1)
- In absolute dollar terms, the estimated investment gain for January would be approximately $36.6bn (or $7,641 per MPF’s 4.79m members).
- History suggests MPF members can be cautiously optimistic in 2026. Out of the 14 previous occasions MPF produced a positive January result, 9 resulted in a positive full year return at an average return of approximately 12.42%.
- HKD bonds is currently the only asset class experiencing a loss in January, with Asian,and Hong Kong and China equities leading the way. (See table 1)
- After factoring in contributions, total MPF assets are presently forecasted to end January at approximately $1.593tr (up $39.6bn from end of December), MPF’s highest level for a 9th consecutive month, and equivalent to an average MPF account balance of $332,384 (up $8,267 from end of December) per MPF’s 4.79m members.
Francis Chung (叢川普), Chairman of MPF Ratings Ltd, Hong Kong’s independent provider of MPF research, views and education today said he expects MPF to carry its positive momentum into 2026 with MPF currently on track to generate a January return of approximately 2.36% (as measured by MPF Ratings’ MPFR All Fund Performance Index). According to Mr Chung, in the previous 14 years when MPF has seen a positive start to a year, 9 have ended the year favourably, and while this suggests MPF members can be cautiously optimistic about 2026’s prospects he warned that volatility, rather than returns, could be the year’s key theme.
Quotes:
Why could 2026 be a strong year for MPF returns?
“If history is anything to go by then MPF members could be optimistic that 2026 will be a strong year. Out of the 14 previous occasions MPF started the year positively, 9 have resulted in positive full year returns but 2026 may not be like past years.”
What is the key to achieving a positive return in 2026?
“Historically, MPF does well when Hong Kong and China equities do well. While we are optimistic for the local markets, it’s likely that MPF members will be challenged by volatility resulting from global and geopolitical factors, reinforcing the importance of diversification.”
“Expect a volatile year but the risk of not being invested is greater than remaining invested”
“MPF Ratings expects 2026 to be a positive but volatile year. A confluence of unpredictable global leadership, US mid-term elections, and a probable Fed chair change highlights risks, but the risk of not being invested if higher than staying invested. Diversification will minimize some of the uncertainty and the MPFA’s mandated DIS funds continue to be MPF Ratings’ preferred investment option for MPF’s 4.79m members.”
Table 1: MPF Ratings’ MPFR Index returns by asset class (as of 22nd January 2026)
Source: MPF Ratings
