24th November 2025
Surprising big winner as MPF faces November faces losses
Key points are as follows:
- MPF Ratings’ MPFR All Fund Performance Index is down -1.29% as financial markets enter November’s last trading week. (See table 1)
- After six consecutive months of positive returns—a rally not seen since 2017, equity market losses attributed to AI equity valuation concerns and question marks over a December US Fed rate cut, are driving MPF losses in November.
- In absolute dollar terms, November is currently seeing an investment loss of approximately -$19.8bn (or -$4,140 per MPF’s 4.79m members). Notably, year-to-date gains are expected to drop below the $200bn threshold at $191.3bn (equivalent to $39,895 per MPF’s 4.79m members).
- Unsurprisingly, defensive asset classes such as Bonds and Cash are amongst November’s best performers, however there’s surprising exceptional performance from the MPFR Equity Fund (Other) category, which is up 5.95%. The Manulife MPF Healthcare Fund, dominates this category, highlighting the compelling investment diversification characteristics of the healthcare sector. (see Table 1)
- Total MPF assets inclusive of contributions are tracking to end November at $1.521tr (down from $1.538tr in October) and equivalent to an average MPF account balance of $317,260 per MPF’s 4.79m members (down approximately $3,515 from October but up $47,927 since the beginning of 2025).
Francis Chung (叢川普), Chairman of MPF Ratings Ltd, Hong Kong’s independent provider of MPF research, views and education today revealed that equity market losses attributed to AI equity valuation concerns and declining probability of a December US Fed rate cut, are driving a possible November MPF loss. Going into November’s final week of trading, the MPFR All Fund Performance Index is down -1.29%, and unsurprisingly, defensive investments such as Bonds and Cash are amongst November’s best performers, however what has surprised many is the exceptional performance of the MPFR MPF Equity Fund (Other) category, which is up 5.95%, and dominated by the Manulife MPF Healthcare Fund.
Factoring the expected loss, total MPF assets inclusive of contributions are tracking to end November at $1.521tr (down from $1.538tr in October) and equivalent to an average MPF account balance of $317,260 per MPF’s 4.79m members (down approximately -$3,515 from October but up $47,927 since the beginning of 2025).
Quotes:
AI valuation concerns and falling probability of an interest rate cut are driving stock markets lower
“After six consecutive months of positive returns, AI equity valuation concerns and questions over a December US interest rate cut are the main drivers MPF’s current November loss. The system is on track for a -1.29% loss which would reduce MPF total assets to $1.521tr, equivalent to an average MPF account balance of $317,260 per MPF’s 4.79m members.”
A very surprising winner amongst the losses
“With MPF expected to deliver a notable November loss it’s unsurprisingly that Cash and Bonds are amongst November’s best performers, however what is surprising is the exceptional performance of MPF’s “other” equity fund category. The category is up 5.95% for the month and is dominated by the Manulife MPF Healthcare Fund. The strong result highlights the compelling diversification characteristics of the healthcare sector.”
A hard lesson learned on one day in November
“On Thursday 20th of November, the Dow Jones Index opened strongly as the market reacted positively to Nvidia’s quarterly results, but after initially rising 700 points, the market ended down 300. A 1000 point performance swing in one day is highly unusual. Imagine the loss incurred by people who tried to time the market. It’s a hard lesson, but investing is about putting aside short-term noise and market volatility to focus on the long term. MPF Ratings reminds MPF members that every scheme offers Default Investment Strategy (DIS) funds. They’re low-fee ready-made diversified fund options. For the vast number of MPF members DIS remains an excellent investment option.”
Table 1: MPF Ratings’ MPFR Index returns by asset class (as of 19th November 2025)
Source: MPF Ratings
