28th October 2025
Is MPF’s 2025 record run about to end?
Key points are as follows:
- MPF Ratings’ MPFR All Fund Performance Index is down 0.26% as financial markets enter October’s final week of trading. (See table 1)
- MPF on a knife-edge. If MPF produces an October loss it would be its first monthly loss in 6 months, however if the system ends the month positively, it would be a 6th consecutive month of positive results, a trend not seen since 2017.
- In absolute dollar terms, October is currently recording a modest investment loss of approximately $3.9bn (or $821 per MPF’s 4.79m members). But notably, year-to-date gains remain above $200bn at $203.3bn (or $42,404 per member).
- On the back of retaliatory US tariff threats, Hong Kong and China equities are currently down -3.56% for the month. If the situation remains unchanged then it would be MPF’s largest asset class’s first loss since April. (Also see table 1)
- Total MPF assets inclusive of contributions are currently on track to end October at $1.529tr (down from $1.53tr in September) and equivalent to an average MPF account balance of $318,914 per MPF’s 4.79m members (down approximately $195 from September but up $49,582 since the beginning of 2025).
Francis Chung (叢川普), Chairman of MPF Ratings Ltd, Hong Kong’s independent provider of MPF research, views and education today announced that threats of retaliatory tariffs by the US government on China could derail MPF’s current record 2025 run. September saw MPF total assets close at a new high of $1.53tr on the back of a record $207bn in annual earnings, however, the tariff threats could hold back further records in the short term. In saying that, Mr Chung pointed out that going into October’s final week of trading, the MPFR All Fund Performance Index is only down a modest 0.26%, and with the respective China and US presidents set to meet later this week sentiment could quickly turn enabling MPF produce a 6th consecutive monthly return and set another total MPF asset size record.
Quotes:
US retaliatory tariff threats threaten to end MPF’s record run
“Resulting from US retaliatory tariff threats, Hong Kong and China equities are currently MPF’s worst performing asset class in October. This negative performance threatens to end MPF’s 2025 record asset growth which has so far seen the MPF system generate over $200bn in investment earnings and achieve a record total asset size of $1.53tr.”
Sentiment could change very quickly
“Even with the tariff threats, the MPF system is only down 0.26% going into October’s final trading week, and with Presidents Trump and Xi Jinping due to meet later this week, sentiment could change very quickly and enable MPF to continue its record earnings and asset growth records.”
Hong Kong and China equities continues to lead MPF annual results
“Despite the potential setback in October, Hong Kong and China equities continues to lead MPF annual results. Its year-to-date returns remain over 30% but this month’s geo-political volatility highlights the importance of long-term investing and diversification. MPF Ratings reminds MPF members that every MPF scheme offers Default Investment Strategy (DIS) funds. They’re low-fee ready-made diversified fund options. For the vast number of MPF members DIS remains an excellent investment option.”
Table 1: MPF Ratings’ MPFR Index returns by asset class (as of 23rd October 2025)
Source: MPF Ratings
