25th April 2025
Trump’s brilliant idea takes MPF into loss territory for the first time this year
Key points are as follows:
- April sees the MPF system tracking towards a monthly investment loss of approximately -3.24% (as measured by the MPFR All Fund Performance Index as at 22nd of April), the 27th worst loss since MPF’s inception. (See Table 1)
- If April market results remain unchanged in the final week, the system would record a year-to-date loss of -0.64%, falling into negative territory for the first time in 2025. the worst first 4-month performance since 2022. (Also see Table 1)
- If results remain unchanged, in absolute dollar terms, April will see a month-to-date investment loss of approximately -$43.4bn (or -$9,100 per MPF’s 4.79m members) and a year-to-date investment loss of -$8.6bn (or -$1,800 per member).
- April sees all equity categories recording losses. With a -7.11% return, Hong Kong and China equities is currently April’s worst performing MPF asset class, but owing to a strong start to the year, it still ranks 2nd year-to-date with a 3.99% return; a best first 4-month result since 2021. (Also see Table 1)
- With a -5.94% US equities is expected to record its 3rd consecutive monthly loss for the first time since October 2023. The asset class’s year-to-date return is now tracking -10.89%, which is its 2nd worst first 4-month result since MPF’s launch. (Also see Table 1)
- Total MPF assets inclusive of contributions could end April at approximately $1.298tr (down $39.6bn from March but up $7.1bn for year-to-date), the 5th highest level since MPF’s launch, and equivalent to an average MPF account balance of $270,800 (down $8,300 from March but up $1,500 for year-to-date).
Francis Chung (叢川普), Chairman of MPF Ratings Ltd, Hong Kong’s independent provider of MPF research, views and education today urged MPF members to adhere to the basics of long-term investing as MPF Ratings assessed the short-term impact from President Donald Trump’s self-proclaimed “Liberation Day” for MPF’s 4.79m members.
Based on MPF Ratings’ MPFR All Fund Performance Index, the MPF system is forecasted to produce an April investment loss of approximately -3.24%, an absolute dollar equivalent of approximately -$43.4bn, or -$9,100 per MPF’s 4.79m members that would be the equivalent of the 27th worst monthly loss since the inception of the MPF system. After factoring in MPF contributions, and despite a year-to-date investment loss of approximately -$8.6bn, the equivalent of about -$1,800 per member, total MPF assets are expected to end April at approximately $1.298tr, the system’s 5th highest level ever.
Quotes:
April felt like a bad month for investment markets…..
“On April 2nd, President Donald Trump announced sweeping tariff hikes that reverberated globally. He thought it was a good idea, markets did not. Markets saw daily swings which had not been seen since COVID and GFC times, and from recollection neither times were particularly enjoyable.”
My biggest concern
“My biggest concern is that MPF members are unable to avoid the short-term market noise. MPF fund flow patterns show a propensity for MPF members to short-term trade rather than long-term invest but no one makes money buying high and selling low nor can market volatility be consistently anticipated.”
How bad is April’s expected loss?
“Unsurprisingly, MPF is on track to produce a monthly loss, but the size of loss would only rank 27th amongst MPF’s monthly losses. Ordinarily, it’s meaningless statistic but it highlights the point that often the worst of investment times are not as bad as they feel, if one is well diversified, focused on the long-term, and make an effort to avoid unnecessary market noise.”
Table 1: MPF Ratings’ MPFR Index returns by asset class (as at 22nd April 2025)
Source: MPF Ratings
