24th January 2025
Total MPF assets set to exceed $1.3tr to kick off 2025
Key points are as follows:
● The MPF system is expected to start 2025 on the front foot with an estimated January investment gain of approximately 1.07% (as measured by the MPFR All Fund Performance Index as at 21st of January). (See Table 1)
● History suggests MPF members can be cautiously optimistic that 2025 could be a good year. Out of the 13 previous occasions MPF produced a positive January result, 8 resulted in a positive full year return at an average return of approximately 12%.
● In absolute dollar terms, the estimated investment gain for January would be approximately $10.2bn (or $2,200 per MPF’s 4.75m members).
● With the exception of Japanese equities, all asset classes are on track to deliver positive performance in January, with European and US equities leading the way. (Also see Table 1)
● After factoring in contributions, total MPF assets are presently forecasted to end January at approximately $1.305tr (up $13.7bn from end of December), the 2nd highest level since MPF’s launch, and equivalent to an average MPF account balance of $274,500 (up $2,900 from end of December).
Francis Chung (叢川普), Chairman of MPF Ratings Ltd, Hong Kong’s independent provider of MPF research, views and education today pointed out that the MPF system is on track for a positive start to 2025 with the MPFR All Fund Performance Index suggesting that MPF’s January month’s return is likely to be just over 1% at 1.07%. While one month’s return is short and is not predictive of the future, Mr Chung did note that based on history MPF members can be cautiously optimistic that 2025 could be a strong year.
Quotes:
Why could 2025 be a strong year for MPF returns?
“It’s only human nature to want to start a year positively. If history is anything to go by then MPF members can be cautiously optimistic that 2025 will be a strong year. Out of the 13 previous occasions MPF started the year positively, 8 resulted in a positive full year return at an average return of approximately 12%. A 12% return would rank amongst the top 10 best annual MPF results.”
Is a 12% return achievable in 2025?
“Historically MPF does well when local equity markets do well. To achieve double digit plus returns local markets will need to outperform. Additionally, US equities has had two consecutive years of 20% plus returns. To achieve a 3rd consecutive year would be remarkable. While MPF Ratings does not expect double digit returns we do expect a positive albeit but volatile year for markets.”
DIS continues to be MPF Ratings’ preferred investment option
“2024 MPF fund inflow data says US equities has strong support amongst MPF members and with President Trump belligerent in his popularist policies there is temptation to remain overweight US shares, but a US bias especially after two consecutive years of 20% returns could come with consequences. Diversification minimizes uncertainty and the MPFA’s mandated DIS funds continue to be MPF Ratings’ preferred investment option for MPF’s 4.75m members.”
Table 1: MPF Ratings’ MPFR Index returns by asset class (as at 21st January 2025)

Source: MPF Ratings